PriceStats ®

Growth of online retail is changing inflation

Financial Times. 8/25/18
“The swelling influence of online retailers is changing the way inflation behaves by making it more sensitive to one-off shocks such as jumps in the price of oil, currency swings or the imposition of tariffs, according to new research….”
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Can’t Wait a Month for Inflation Data? Daily Gauge Shows Prices in Real Time

The Wall Street Journal. 2/21/18
“Investors on the edge of their seats about inflation’s next move don’t have to wait until mid-March to find out how prices changed this month. PriceStats, a Cambridge, Mass., firm that tracks prices of millions of items sold online, produces a measure of U.S. consumer prices daily…”
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Can big data revolutionise policymaking by governments?

Financial Times. 1/31/18
“When Alberto Cavallo was a child growing up in Argentina in the late 1980s, the Latin American country was suffering one of its occasional crises….”
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Economics in central banking: Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon – Billion Prices Project/PriceStats

Central Banking. 1/24/18
“Through a vast and ongoing data-collecting exercise, PriceStats has helped central banks overcome many of the drawbacks inherent in traditional inflation series…”
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Para el Gobierno y las consultoras, la inflación de octubre llegaría al 1,5%

La Nacion. 10/26/17
“La inflación de octubre apunta a terminar en torno del 1,5%, según las estimaciones preliminares del Gobierno y las de las consultoras privadas…”
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UK prices rising faster after Brexit vote

Sky News. 3/7/17
“Prices in the UK are now rising at an annual rate of more than 3% in the latest evidence of economic fallout from the EU referendum, according to figures seen by Sky News…”
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Since Brexit Vote, U.K. Online Inflation Surging After Pound Decline While Economy Stalls

Forbes. 8/15/16
“Since the June 23 U.K. referendum that saw 52% of voters wanting to leave the European Union, there has been no shortage of pundits offering their opinion on the economic impact of “Brexit”…”
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Mass Technology Leadership Council Announces Finalists for the 19th Annual Technology Leadership Awards

MarketWired. 7/20/16
“Leaders of the Massachusetts innovation community gathered last night at the Microsoft NERD Center for a reception at which the group announced finalists for the 2016 MassTLC Technology Leadership Awards. The awards shines a spotlight on the best of the region’s internationally respected…”
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Straws in the wind

The Economist. 7/16/16
“Before the referendum, economists were in near-unanimous agreement that a vote to Leave would hit the economy. And as predicted, the past three weeks have been torrid….”
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A billion prices can’t be wrong

Financial Times. 5/13/16
“In the dying days of 2015 came news to set any geek’s pulse racing: the declaration of a ‘statistical emergency’ by Mauricio Macri, the new president of Argentina…”
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AXA Investment Managers Leverages State Street PriceStats Inflation Series and MKT MediaStats’ Big Data Analytics to Sharpen and Accelerate Investment Decision-Making Process

BusinessWire. 4/5/16
“AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) today announced a collaboration with State Street and MKT MediaStats to evaluate data-driven indicators that help analyse economic and market information…”
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An Augean stable

The Economist. 2/13/16
“Government bean-counters do not, in most countries, have a reputation for derring-do. But in Argentina some have proved to be martyrs and heroes…”
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Here’s the Real Legacy of the Kirchners in Argentina

Bloomberg. 11/4/2015
“Argentina President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner warns voters that they stand to lose everything they gained under 12 years of government by herself and her late husband if they vote for the opposition…”
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Greece Is In A Deflationary Spiral According To Online Prices

Forbes. 7/20/2015
“As Greek banks re-open today after a 3-week closure and as the European state works toward reaching a new deal with creditors, it’s still unclear what the full effect of the run on Greek banks has been…”
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Alberto Cavallo: “Me gusta la economía empírica, basada en datos concretos”

La Nación. 5/11/2015
“Llegó al lugar indicado, al centro en el que conviven dos de sus grandes pasiones. Alberto Cavallo, el hijo menor del ex ministro de Economía del país, es -desde 2010- profesor universitario del prestigioso Instituto Tecnológico de Massachusetts (MIT)….”
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The Success of Monitoring the Economy With Big Data

The Huffington Post. 3/17/2015
“It’s rare to find academic economists in the Ivory Tower creating new technologies that generate waves of interest jointly from policymakers, Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Roberto Rigobon and Alberto Cavallo, two professors at the MIT Sloan School of Management, make an exception…”
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The Billion Prices Project Thinks Inflation May Have Turned a Sharp Corner

The Wall Street Journal. 3/13/2015
“One of the biggest economic questions facing the U.S. economy in 2015 is this: Will measures of inflation veer into deflationary territory, or will prices firm?…”
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Retail Sales Don’t Take Growth Off the Shelf

The Wall Street Journal. 1/14/2015
“Retail sales softened markedly last month, but that might have as much to do with the prices consumers paid as how much stuff they bought…”
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The Economic Impact Of Falling Oil Prices: ‘Expansionary Disinflation’

Forbes. 1/12/2015
“Forget about the ‘secular stagnation’ theory of an ailing U.S. economy. According to the Labor Department, payrolls grew at a seasonally adjusted increase of 242,000 in December adding to the soaring U.S. job growth of 2014 which represents the strongest annual job creation since 1999…”
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Online Prices Indicate Russian Inflation Spike After Ruble Decline

Forbes. 1/1/2015
“Russia’s economy looks eerily similar to the 1998 Russian financial crisis which was also characterized by significant declines in the price of oil, a significant decline in the Ruble, sharp hikes in the central bank’s…”
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Why the Decline in the Consumer Price Index Might Not Be Over

The Wall Street Journal. 12/17/2014
“November saw the steepest drop in consumer prices in almost six years, and that decline may have further to go as the collapse of oil continues to pull down prices…”
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Oil Is Dragging Down Prices Faster Than Official Price Index Can Capture

The Wall Street Journal. 12/16/2014
“Consumer prices around the world are pulling back so rapidly, along with the collapse of oil prices, that official measures of inflation have yet to capture the magnitude of the decline…”
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When Should You Shop? Right After Black Friday

The New York Times. 11/27/2014
“Want the best deals on electronics, but don’t feel like camping out for two weeks in front of Best Buy? Stay home on Friday, but don’t wait too long after that to shop online…”
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The 50 most influential Latin American intellectuals 2014

ES Global. 11/19/2014
“Who are generating ideas in Latin America? esglobal search resumes 50 most influential Latin American intellectuals in order to highlight the enormous talent and variety of views that are generated…”
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Inflation Truth, Really

The New York Times. 11/14/2014
“I’m in Argentina for the day — literally (stuff came up, forcing me to make this a very quick visit; sorry, no time for media interviews or anything not already booked). And I thought it might be worth telling people something they may not know about the history of MIT’s Billion Prices Project…”
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Global disinflation fears rock markets: here are three new ways to track inflation

The Telegraph. 10/16/2014
“Understanding inflation – the average rate at which prices rise – is crucial to economists and investors alike. Now a lack of it – inflation has been falling across the US, UK, and eurozone – coupled with meagre economic growth has put fear into traders…”
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Argentina Defaults and Will Repeg to the Dollar, but What if the U.S. Defaults?

The Street. 07/31/2014
“Argentina defaults, and the cycle repeats once again, exactly as before. After defaulting, the government pegs to the dollar, as tracked in the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish (UUP). Then it spends…”
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Another Reason Not to Fear Inflation

Bloomberg View. 07/11/2014
“U.S. inflation has been accelerating in recent months, presenting the Federal Reserve with a tricky question as it decides how quickly to remove stimulus from the U.S. economy: Is the rise in prices a precursor of things to come or simply a “catching up” phase as people begin to spend again after a brutal winter?…”
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Big data: An opportunity to boost analytical capacities

SciDev.Net. 04/15/2014
“In recent years there has been much discussion — and even hype — about big data. Much of this centres on big data’s potential to cure many of the ills of official statistical production, such as how quickly National Statistics Offices (NSOs) can respond to a new policy request, high costs…”
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Big Data Is About To Produce A Whole Bunch Of Google-like Companies — Here’s How

Business Insider. 08/15/2013
“By now, chances are you’ve heard the term ‘big data.’ It refers to the gobs of information being collected about us and our world through things like Twitter, Facebook, Google, smartphones, GPS locations, and tiny sensors built into everything. But the question for most people is…”
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Argentine Opposition Lawmakers Say Prices Rose 1.5% in March

Bloomberg. 04/11/2013
“Argentina’s consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in March, more than in February even after supermarkets agreed to freeze prices until June, opposition lawmakers said today…”

Big Data: A Revolution that Will Transform how We Live, Work, and Think

Viktor Mayer-Schönberger and Kenneth Cukier. 04/2013
PriceStats was featured in Big Data, a widely acclaimed book which explains what big data is, how it will impact our lives, and how to mitigate the risks involved with its use. Forbes magazine calls it “an excellent introduction for general audiences to what has become a topic of conversation everywhere”…
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Now HERE’S Some Government Manipulated Economic Data

Business Insider. 10/10/2012
“The global economy is moving into a good old fashioned slowdown with the developed world’s policy options limited and investors nervous, putting the spotlight firmly on…”
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Global Markets Week Ahead: Fed to shine light on policy path

Reuters. 07/13/2012
“The global economy is moving into a good old fashioned slowdown with the developed world’s policy options limited and investors nervous, putting the spotlight firmly on U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in the coming week to point the way ahead…”
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PIGGY BANK

The Economist. 03/31/2012
“For the past 20 years a plaque has adorned the lobby of Argentina’s Central Bank, proclaiming its “primary and fundamental mission to preserve the value of the currency”. This week the plaque was removed…”
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What Manipulated Government Economic Statistics Really Look Like

Business Insider. 03/27/2012
“People love to spin conspiracy theories regarding US economic data, and how the government manages the numbers to get favorable results…”
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DON’T LIE TO ME, ARGENTINA

The Economist. 02/25/2012
“Imagine a world without statistics. Governments would fumble in the dark, investors would waste money and electorates would struggle to hold their political leaders to account…”
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THE PRICE OF COOKING THE BOOKS

The Economist. 02/25/2012
“History has left Argentines with more than their share of economic trauma. Having twice suffered destructive bouts of hyperinflation in the late 1980s, they are sensitive to rising prices. When they spot inflation their instinct is to dump the peso and buy dollars…”
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WHICH OF THESE IS NOT LIKE THE OTHERS?

The Economist. 02/24/2012
“In this week’s print edition, we explain why we have decided to drop Argentina’s official inflation statistics and publish a private-sector estimate, State Streets’ PriceStats Index, instead. ….”
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PRICE IN A TRICE

The Economist. 06/23/2011
“If the inflationistas are right, where should they look for signs of accelerating price growth? Many are suspicious of official numbers: John Williams, the boss of an inflation-statistics website…”
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A BILLION PRICES NOW

The New Yorker. 05/30/2011
“Between official government statistics, industry surveys, and Wall Street forecasts, it often seems like we’re drowning in data, often of uncertain value. But consider the alternative. In the early…”
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Tracking Inflation: How Fast Are Prices Rising?

PBS NewsHour. 05/13/2011
“Now inflation. The government’s latest figures show prices made the biggest jump in any twelve month period since October 2008. But when gas and food are added inflation feels even higher to most Americans, and that presents…”
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Economists Find Faster, Cheaper Way to Measure Inflation

Scientific American. 05/11/2011
“Even in the information age, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics still gathers much of its data the old-fashioned way. Workers make phone calls to find out what dentists charge for pulling teeth, and they visit stores to write down the prices of CDs and Russet potatoes…”
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Bank to publish inflation data from internet

Financial Times. 05/04/2011
“Inflation data harvested from the internet will take its first big step into financial markets on Thursday after a bank agreed to publish real-time price indices developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology…”
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Billion Price Preview

The New York Times. 03/28/2011
“One indicator I’ve been tracking lately is the MIT Billion Price Index; it basically tracks the goods component of the CPI, but of course has higher frequency, so it’s kind of an early warning indicator…”
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New indications of inflation

Econbrowser. 02/20/2011
“The BLS reported on Thursday that the inflation rate as measured by the headline CPI has been 1.6% over the last year. Excluding food and energy, the inflation rate would be 1.0%. The MIT Billion Prices Project is recording a slightly higher inflation rate for the U.S. of about 2.5%…”
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The Billion Price Index

The New York Times. 02/18/2011
“Some commenters have been claiming that the MIT Billion Price Index is telling a very different story from the official Consumer Price Index. So I guess it’s worth pointing out that it really matches pretty well. What you need to realize is that the Billion Price Index, inevitably, only covers goods — not services. So it’s got a narrower focus than the CPI…”
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Innovator: Alberto Cavallo

Bloomberg Businessweek. 02/10/2011
“To track inflation, each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics canvasses businesses and records the price of, say, a 4.4-pound bag of golden delicious apples, among hundreds of other items. The agency dials land lines to survey how consumers spend their money. It’s essentially the same process the BLS has used for half a century. In a recent budget request, the agency admitted its methods are “increasingly out of touch” in the age of cell phones and e-commerce…”
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The Price is Right

MIT News. 01/14/2011
“Inflation is a crucial economic indicator, since rising prices can hurt consumers and trigger political discontent. It is also hard to measure. In the United States, Bureau of Labor Statistics employees track over 20,000 prices in person or via phone, which are then aggregated into the Consumer Price Index…”
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The real-time Inflation Calculator

The New York Times. 12/19/2010
“Measuring inflation is a time-consuming business: at the beginning of each month, government researchers across the country amass troves of data on prices for everything from shoes to milk to phones. Two weeks after the end of the month, the government releases gauges of inflation like the Consumer Price Index. But inflation hunters may now get an advance glimpse of the data…”
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Economists’ Programs are beating U.S. at tracking inflation

The Washington Post. 12/25/2010
“At 23,000 retailers and businesses in 90 U.S. cities, hundreds of government workers find and note prices on very precise products. And I’m not kidding when I say “very precise”… “
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Do we need Google to measure inflation?

Slate. 12/20/2010
“…This mind-numbingly tedious process goes on for a dizzying panoply of items: wine, takeaway meals, bedroom furniture, surgical procedures, pet dogs, college tuition, cigarettes, haircuts, funerals. When all of the prices are marked down, the workers submit forms that are collated, checked, and input into massive spreadsheets… “
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Billion Prices Now

Econbrowser. 11/17/2010
“Justin Lahart is among those calling attention to the Billion Prices Project of MIT Professors Roberto Rigobon and Alberto Cavallo. The basic idea of the Billion Prices Project is to automate search of websites around the world that report prices at which various vendors are offering to sell specific item…”
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A Way, Day by Day, of Gauging Prices

The Wall Street Journal. 11/10/2010
“Economists will dissect next Wednesday’s government report on consumer prices for any sign inflation is heating up—or cooling. But a pair of academics in Boston already has data they think show where prices went. For that matter, they claim to be able to track how prices fared …”
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